MD 0016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS…LOUISIANA…AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas...Louisiana...and
southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 100040Z - 100245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity is expected this
evening and tonight over portions of the Sabine and lower MS
Valleys. A mix of supercells and linear segments will likely support
a risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. One or more
watches are likely in the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and mesoanalysis showed
scattered convection ongoing within a very moist and broad warm
sector from east TX into LA and across southern MS. Over the last 2
hours, convection within this region has slowly intensified as a
positive-tilt upper trough over the southern Plains has moved
eastward. Continued ascent and convective development within the
warm sector appears likely this evening given robust moisture and
buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg LIX/LCH RAOBs) with little to no
inhibition remaining.
Overall forcing is still somewhat nebulous and driven primarily by
low-level warm advection. This suggests storm evolution is likely to
be slow until the upper trough moves closer. Initial storm evolution
is expected along low-level confluence structures and the cold front
over eastern TX. Deep-layer shear (50-60 kt) oriented largely
parallel to these features is favorable for storm organization, but
with a mixed convective mode of supercells and linear segments. This
will favor a risk for damaging gusts given strong mid and low-level
flow.
While initially somewhat weaker, low-level flow/shear should
increase this evening as large-scale ascent from the approaching
upper trough and nocturnal low-level jet intensify across LA and MS.
Peak SRH (0-500m) of 100-150 m2/s2 will support low-level rotation
and the potential for a couple tornadoes as well. This appears
especially likely along the diffuse warm front where weak pressure
falls are occurring and low-level winds are backed.
Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest
convection will gradually increase in coverage and intensity this
evening. As storms mature a severe threat should evolve and
transition northeastward tonight. Given the potential for damaging
gusts and a couple tornadoes, one or more watches is likely needed
in the next hour or two.
..Lyons/Gleason.. 01/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30409384 30789411 31389416 31939382 32509255 32269018
32078938 31848874 31378844 31028868 30509099 30479125
30369211 30369339 30409384
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
