MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NC INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Areas affected…Southeast NC into extreme northeast SC
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 070655Z – 071000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A brief tornado or two will be possible overnight.
DISCUSSION…A band of convection along the east/northeast periphery
of Tropical Storm Debby’s circulation has become somewhat more
well-defined early this morning. A theta-e/instability gradient
persists near the coast, with a narrow inland zone of MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg noted (per recent objective mesoanalyses and a modified
06Z sounding from KMHX) where temperatures remain near 80 F.
The 06Z MHX sounding and recent VWPs from KMHX/KLTX depict 0-1 km
SRH of around 150-200 m2/s2 for observed cell motions, which is
sufficient to support at least transient low-level rotation with the
strongest cells. While ongoing convection has generally struggled to
become organized, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out
overnight as stronger embedded cells within the primary convective
band move inland and cross the near-coastal baroclinic zone.
..Dean/Edwards.. 08/07/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MHX…ILM…
LAT…LON 34147884 34387852 35037745 35037690 34857667 34427693
33847770 33627823 33527882 33797896 34147884
