SPC MD 186

SPC MD 186


Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Areas affected…central and southern Florida

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 031806Z – 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears probable
across much of the interior into southeastern peninsular Florida
through 3-5 PM EST, accompanied by small to marginally severe hail
and a risk for localized damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION…Weak deep-layer warm advection appears underway across
much of the Florida peninsula, with low-amplitude mid-level
troughing in the process of gradually shifting offshore of the
Atlantic coast. However, around 500 mb, temperatures are still
generally around -13 to -15 C, with one lingering axis of colder
temperatures forecast to spread across the interior peninsula into
Atlantic coastal areas through 21-23Z.

Beneath this environment, daytime heating of a relatively moist
boundary layer with surface dew points ranging from the mid 60s to
near 70 F is contributing to substantive destabilization, with CAPE
increasing through 1000-1500+ J/kg. Although low-level convergence,
and forcing for upward vertical motion in general, appears weak,
deepening convection with widely scattered thunderstorm development
is underway across the interior through southeastern peninsula
coastal areas. And a gradual further increase and intensification
of storms seems probable through mid to late afternoon, as potential
instability peaks.

Although flow in the lowest 5-6 km AGL is generally weak, stronger
flow (50+ kt) in higher levels may still enhance thunderstorm
development, and contribute to potential for small to marginally
severe hail in the stronger cells developing this afternoon. As
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen, heavy precipitation
loading and latent cooling aided by melting hail probably will also
contribute to potential for isolated locally damaging downbursts.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/03/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 29618263 29658184 28808139 28348083 27778056 27138002
25998046 26348091 26608135 27628165 28158220 28698224

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