MD 0194 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024
Areas affected…central/southern Florida Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 061801Z – 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
next couple of hours. Isolated strong storms may produce hail near a
half inch to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds. A watch is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms along the southwest coast of the FL
Peninsula have increased in intensity over the past 30 minutes or
so. This activity is moving east along a weak differential heating
zone created by early clouds and morning showers, and within a zone
of weak low-level convergence. Despite scattered clouds across the
central/southern Peninsula, dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to
near 70 F and modest midlevel lapse rates has allowed MLCAPE values
to increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A 17z RAOB from MFL does
indicated some weak inhibition in the 500-1500 m layer, though ample
elevated instability is noted. Additional heating increasing ascent
through the afternoon should largely mitigate inhibition.
Vertical shear will remain somewhat marginal, around 25-35 kt, but
sufficient for at least transient/short-lived strong/organized
updrafts. Hail approaching 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds will
be the main hazards with isolated thunderstorm activity through
23-00z. Low-level winds are fairly weak, especially through 1 km.
However, some favorable curvature to low-level hodograph (per 17z
MFL RAOB and region radar VWPs) and effective SRH around 100 m2/s2
amid a very moist low-level airmass could support a brief/weak
spin-up near the southeast coast where better low-level convergence
is noted. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain marginal
and sporadic, and a watch is not expected at this time.
..Leitman/Hart.. 03/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…
LAT…LON 25668008 25488016 25468029 25418060 25498093 25728141
26038180 26558182 27568158 28288116 28448073 28258039
28078021 27597998 26317984 25668008
