MD 1945 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Areas affected…Central/Southern Virginia and the Carolinas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 181858Z – 182100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered strong to severe storms are likely this
afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION…Visible satellite trends show deepening cu across much
of the region from central/southern Virginia southward into the
Carolinas. Thunderstorm development is likely to begin in these
regions over the next 1-2 hours. A few cells have developed across
western North Carolina near the higher terrain. The air mass east of
this development is characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg
with temperatures in the upper 80s-90s and dew points in the low to
mid 70s. This moist and unstable air mass will support multicell
clusters capable of downbursts. A watch will likely be needed to
cover this threat soon.
..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…LWX…RAH…ILM…RNK…CHS…CAE…
GSP…
LAT…LON 33378181 33688201 33978199 35348160 36008126 36708076
37018039 37337988 37577930 37967789 38127730 37957664
37767606 37717601 35957705 34207883 32728138 33378181
