SPC MD 196

SPC MD 196


Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected…Northeast Colorado to southwest Nebraska

Concerning…Heavy snow

Valid 071642Z – 072045Z

SUMMARY…The potential for heavy snowfall rates above 1 inch/hour
will increase through early afternoon across parts of northeast
Colorado into southwest Nebraska.

DISCUSSION…Over the past 1-2 hours, surface observations across
northeast CO have shown a steady reduction in visibility due to
falling snow as low-level temperatures fall below freezing and allow
a p-type transition to mainly snow. This activity is largely being
driven by a corridor of focused ascent within a warm advection
regime between roughly 850-650 mb to the north of a meandering
vorticity maximum (evident in water-vapor and regional radar
imagery). Broad ascent within a mid-level deformation zone draped
over the region should not only augment local ascent, but also
prolong the duration of precipitation through the afternoon/evening.
This should foster a swath of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall
rates between 1-2 inches/hour. Furthermore, upstream lightning and
regional 12 UTC soundings indicated mid-level lapse rates are
sufficiently steep for a continuation of weak convection across
parts of CO/NE, which may lead to brief bursts of heavier snowfall.
Latest high-res guidance suggests the onset of heavier snowfall
rates is probable during the 18-20 UTC period, which seems
reasonable based on the aforementioned observed trends.

..Moore.. 03/07/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 40130357 40920323 41110300 41530223 41590196 41590167
41450139 41210129 40850163 40680191 40450233 40210263
39930292 39860306 39840320 39930352 40130357

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