MD 2022 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604… FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604... Valid 292310Z - 300115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening. Isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved across northeast NM into southwest KS ahead of a short-wave trough. This feature is advancing into western CO/NM and should encourage ongoing activity to spread slowly downstream this evening. However, latest diagnostic data suggests these clusters are rooted within the most buoyant air mass (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and will gradually advance beyond the primary corridor of instability that extends from eastern NM into western KS. MRMS data suggests the most robust updrafts could be generating hail at times, but the more likely scenario may actually be gusts as lapse rates are not that steep across this region. In the absence of a pronounced LLJ this activity should gradually weaken later this evening. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35090440 38520404 38530180 35090228 35090440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
