MD 2026 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025
Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012343Z - 020145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue south and westward
through the evening with potential for strong to severe wind.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this afternoon along
and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in
northern/central Arizona. This activity will continue to drop
southward into the lower deserts where temperatures have crested 100
F and dew point spreads around 40-50 degrees. In addition, steep low
to mid-level lapse rates are noted with deeply mixed profiles. New
activity is forming along a southwestward moving outflow boundary
east of the Phoenix Metro. This may support a few instances of
strong to severe wind and low visibility from blowing dust this
evening.
..Thornton/Hart.. 09/01/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 34131168 34251118 34181116 34061115 33931099 33761074
33611044 33511014 33420971 33190983 33011007 32811073
32851119 32991161 33241197 33381214 33561215 34131168
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
