MD 2027 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024
Areas affected…central and eastern North Dakota
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 290547Z – 290715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A few supercells across central North Dakota are expected
to persist into eastern North Dakota early this morning with a
threat or isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION…Regional radar composite shows a decaying MCS across
southeast North Dakota as this cluster moves east of the better
instability. Across western and central North Dakota, a significant
increase in convection has occurred during the last hour within the
post-frontal airmass due to a combination of strengthening
isentropic ascent and DCVA ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough. Between this post-frontal convection and the decaying MCS a
locally favorable environment exists. MUCAPE around 2000 to 3000
J/kg on the apex of a strengthening low-level jet and strong shear
(50-60 knots per BIS VWP) will support strong to severe supercells.
While this environment will be quite favorable for the next 1 to 2
hours, expect storms to quickly outpace this better environment and
thus weaken across eastern/northeast North Dakota. Due to the
limited temporal nature of the threat, no severe thunderstorm watch
is justified.
..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGF…BIS…
LAT…LON 46279930 46950013 47950026 48579988 48869896 48729772
47839716 46819762 46319806 46279930
