MD 0203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024
Areas affected…the middle Rio Grande Valley into parts of central
Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 080709Z – 080945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A few storms may become severe as they develop
east/northeastward into central Texas. Large and potentially
damaging hail will be the primary concern.
DISCUSSION…Storms are gradually increasing along a stalled
front/theta-e gradient from Terrell to San Saba Counties where mid
60s dewpoints are in place. Greater moisture levels exist just
south, with values to around 70 F. Surface winds remain quite weak
on both sides of the boundary, resulting in minimal convergence.
Steep lapse rates exist just above the boundary layer, and it will
not take much lift to get parcels to the LFC. As such, expect a
gradual increase in storm coverage along this front, perhaps with a
supercell or two consolidating out of the elongated area of
convection. Lengthy hodographs, especially in the mid and upper
levels, and cold temperatures aloft will likely support hail. Given
the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a watch is not
anticipated at this time.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/08/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…EWX…SJT…MAF…
LAT…LON 30050207 30360154 30900029 31349922 31449863 31169811
30859800 30359809 29979858 29609946 29310032 29240087
29440135 29610174 29750209 30050207
