SPC MD 2036

SPC MD 2036


Mesoscale Discussion 2036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Areas affected…North Dakota

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 241820Z – 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Elevated thunderstorms may pose a large hail risk over the
next several hours prior to more robust thunderstorms later this

DISCUSSION…Building convective towers have been noted within a
band of mid-level altocumulus across western ND over the past hour
in GOES daytime RGB and low-level water vapor imagery. The zonally
oriented and slab-like characteristic of the altocumulus band and
the rapid east/northeast cloud motions suggest that this activity is
elevated, likely rooted near 700 mb where recent forecast soundings
show fairly steep lapse rates (near 8 C/km) and mid-level RH between
60-75%. A few lightning strikes have been noted with the deeper
towers, indicating that a gradual deepening trend is ongoing –
possibly being driven by broadscale ascent ahead of the approaching
mid-level trough.

This elevated convection has not be captured well by most guidance,
and with some mixed-layer inhibition lingering across the region, it
remains unclear if this activity will strengthen enough to pose a
severe threat in the near term. However, with diurnal
destabilization ongoing, it is possible that more robust cells
continue to intensify and pose a large hail threat through late
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest the nocturnal inversion should
be mixed out by around 19-20 UTC, which may be when more robust
intensification takes place. Additional convection is probable along
an approaching cold front later this afternoon – most likely
around/after 22 UTC, which will likely pose a more robust severe
weather threat given stronger mesoscale ascent along the boundary
and favorable timing with peak diurnal heating. While unlikely,
trends will continue to be monitored for the near-term need for a

..Moore/Grams.. 08/24/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 47570356 48860129 48950055 48879998 48439926 47579872
47129893 46969933 46860176 46920285 46990338 47130369
47300374 47570356

Read more

Read More