MD 2051 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Areas affected…southeastern Louisiana coastal areas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 111219Z – 111545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…The risk for occasional tornadoes may begin to increase
near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas by late morning (10
AM-Noon). Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
tornado watch.
DISCUSSION…The center of Francine has been migrating across and
northeast of the Gunnison Oil Platform vicinity of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico during the past hour or so, and is still roughly 170
miles from its forecast south central Louisiana coastal landfall
later today. However, the leading edge of a broader convective
precipitation shield preceding Francine is beginning to overspread
coastal areas, accompanied by saturating thermodynamic profiles with
lapse rates trending moist adiabatic in mid-levels.
In the wake of this regime, and with the continued approach of
Francine, model forecast soundings suggest that a subtle increase in
boundary-layer temperatures and dew points may contribute to modest
destabilization by midday along coastal areas from west of
Boothville into the Vermilion Bay vicinity. It appears that this
will coincide with more notable strengthening of low-level wind
fields, which are forecast to contribute to enlarging low-level
hodographs increasingly supportive of convection with embedded
low-level mesocyclones potentially capable of producing tornadoes.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 09/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LIX…LCH…
LAT…LON 29459176 29519097 29258988 28839012 28759117 29189143
29459176
