MD 2057 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 100449Z - 100645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail threat can be expected with storms across the central High Plains into the early-morning hours. DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection across the central High Plains appears to be aiding an expanding complex of convection from southeast CO into southwest KS. Latest radar data suggests an MCS is evolving along the nose of an intensifying LLJ. The LLJ is expected to veer into south central KS later tonight as a weak disturbance ejects into this portion of the Plains. While the majority of this convection should struggle to attain severe levels, there is some concern for hail/gusty winds as mid-level lapse rates are steep. If a more organized bowing segment ultimately evolves with this maturing complex, a severe thunderstorm watch may be considered, but for now it is not anticipated. ..Darrow/Mosier.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 39170243 38499863 37329873 37590108 38220280 39170243 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
