SPC MD 2103

SPC MD 2103


Mesoscale Discussion 2103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Areas affected…north-central NE

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 072357Z – 080200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Some severe gusts and a few hail reports are possible this
evening across parts of north-central Nebraska. A watch is not

DISCUSSION…A cluster of storms has been ongoing across southern
South Dakota, moving into northern Nebraska, and additional storms
are developing along a warm front across the region near an
upper-level shortwave trough. South of the boundary, temperatures
are in the mid-80s to near 90F with dewpoints in the low 50s, and
per short-term RAP profiles, inverted-V low-level thermodynamic
profiles are common across central Nebraska. Additionally, mid-level
flow from the trough is producing effective bulk shear of 40 kts
with straight hodographs. Given the low-level thermodynamic
profiles, some severe gusts are possible, and a few hail reports are
possible with the deep-layer shear. The limiting factor is buoyancy,
with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and for this reason a watch is not
anticipated. With support from the upper-level trough, storms are
expected to sustain past sunset, moving to the east and southeast.

..Supinie/Thompson.. 09/07/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 42980180 43030082 42979959 42829881 42139816 41589808
41329822 41039847 40879906 41070028 41380106 42160181
42690213 42980180

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