MD 2107 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Areas affected...parts of northeastern Oklahoma and adjacent
portions of the Great Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 210202Z - 210400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Lingering strong thunderstorm activity may pose a
continuing risk for a localized downburst or two through 10-11 PM
CDT.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development persists in an
evolving, but still not particularly organized, cluster near and
northwest through north of Tulsa. Much of the stronger convection
is being forced above the eastward propagating portion of an
expanding cold pool at the surface, near a stalled, remnant surface
frontal zone, along which low-level moisture is maximized and may be
contributing to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. This convection will
probably gradually consolidate with a smaller immediate downstream
cluster supported by lift associated with warm advection along the
boundary.
This is occurring in the presence of westerly deep-layer ambient
mean flow on the order of 10-15 kt, with negligible deep-layer
shear. However, lower/mid-tropospheric thermodynamic profiles may
be unsaturated enough to contribute to a continuing risk for another
strong downburst or two through late evening.
..Kerr/Bunting.. 09/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...
LAT...LON 36909590 36689502 36209455 35939481 35829521 35889565
36019602 36499658 36909590
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
