MD 2112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 2112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Areas affected...portions of northeastern Missouri into central
Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 212143Z - 212315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two may occur with merging storms over
the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Scattered pulse-cellular and multicellular storms,
which have been ongoing for the past few hours, are showing signs of
merging. Furthermore, increasing lightning trends suggests that some
of these storms may be intensifying. Vertical wind shear is poor,
though up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE precede the clustering storms per 21Z
mesoanalysis. As such, the amalgamation of storms may result in
strong enough cold pool mergers and subsequent outflow to support a
damaging gust or two through the remainder of the afternoon.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 09/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX...
LAT...LON 39469303 40099119 40289022 40118966 39808917 39418896
39008925 38828970 38719025 38569087 38499134 38479189
39469303
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
