MD 2114 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616… FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the southern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616... Valid 220056Z - 220230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually decrease in intensity over the next few hours. Until then, isolated wind/hail threat will continue, primarily across southern and eastern portions of ww616. New watch will not be issued. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters that evolved along/near surface front, along the northern plume of steep low-level lapse rates, continue propagating southeast early this evening. Midlevel flow is becoming more northwesterly as the southern Plains short-wave trough approaches the Arklatex. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited fairly steep lapse rates through 4-5km, with substantial PW values, though possibly contaminated by nearby storms. As nocturnal cooling weakens buoyancy, updrafts should gradually weaken. Latest radar trends suggest this is already taking place. Even so, low-level inflow remains favorable for this activity to propagate across much of the remainder of north central TX, with at least an isolated wind/hail risk for the next few hours. Greatest concentration of robust storms will likely extend along a corridor from Erath-Dallas/Ellis County through 03z. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32659863 33349661 32949619 32609680 32279827 32659863 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
