MD 2126 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 2126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Areas affected...Southwest/south-central AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240724Z - 240830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong gust threat is possible
with sporadic intensification and weakening of individual storm
cells across southern Arkansas through the pre-dawn hours.
DISCUSSION...Embedded within a broader swath of mainly weak
convective and stratiform elements, one cell briefly intensified
across southwest AR. Before pulsing down again, it did contain a
robust MRMS MESH signature, hail spike, and CC min indicative of a
large hail core in the mid levels. Stratiform immediately ahead of
this cell has diminished, which may support another round or two of
reintensification of this cell or other nearby updrafts over the
next 2-3 hours. Background environment is characterized by very high
PW values of 2-2.25 inches per GPS PW data, amid weak,
moist-adiabatic tropospheric lapse rates. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings appear to be slightly too strong with 6-9 km AGL winds per
area VWP data. As such, large hail cores should struggle to be
sustained, with peak sizes likely remaining in the quarter to golf
ball range. Locally strong gusts, amid otherwise background light
surface winds, are possible in collapsing cores.
..Grams/Gleason.. 09/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34299419 34289362 34249279 34239203 33849177 33369181
33129204 33009234 33049315 33259394 33639444 34149439
34299419
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
