MD 2176 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Areas affected...Parts of Southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 250556Z - 250730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading east-southeastward
to the Texas Coast through the early morning hours. Damaging winds
gusts are the main concern, though a brief/embedded tornado cannot
be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KEWX shows an MCS tracking
east-southeastward at around 40 kt across parts of south-central TX.
While the leading-line updrafts have decreased in intensity over the
last hour or so, the well-established cold pool and moist
pre-convective air mass continues to support embedded damaging wind
gusts -- especially with any embedded mesovortex structures (i.e.,
north/south-oriented portions of the line) in the near term.
With time, the MCS will continue tracking east-southeastward to the
TX Coast through the early morning hours. Around 40 kt of
line-orthogonal effective shear and a moist/moderately unstable
downstream air mass will continue to support a risk of damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado risk -- aided by a
modest/gradually strengthening low-level jet and related low-level
hodograph curvature. A watch will likely be issued within the hour
for parts of the area.
..Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29359768 29879737 30559618 30809487 30649392 30279375
29749378 28649542 28439625 28609691 28889744 29359768
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
