MD 2191 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS…FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Areas affected...northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma...and
southwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281746Z - 281945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The thunderstorm threat should increase over the next
couple of hours. The overall environment will support a risk of
small hail. A watch is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-2
hours across portions of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma as
large-scale ascent continues to increase. This region is located
beneath the right-exit region of 120-knot upper-level jet
(subsident) but also in a zone of increasing/yet modest warm-air
advection near 700-millibars owing to isentropic flow across a
surface warm front across east Texas. Additional forcing for ascent
will come from a seasonably strong surface cold front surging
southeast across the region.
Forecast soundings to the north of this warm front suggest elevated
instability on the order of 500-1000 J/kg and long hodographs will
be available to any thunderstorm that develops. Thus, despite only
modest mid-level lapse rates, the degree of instability and
strengthening kinematic fields will support the potential of small
hail. Gusty winds associated with the cold front passage will also
be possible.
Given the limited nature of any potential severe risk, a watch is
not anticipated across this area.
..Marsh/Bunting.. 10/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33109623 33909601 34279498 34269390 33869317 33209333
32779400 32529466 32569489 32759593 33109623
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
