MD 2198 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025
Areas affected...portions of central/southern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072100Z - 072300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may
develop over the next couple of hours across parts of central and
southern Alabama. Strong gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado will be
the main hazards with any more intense cells that can develop.
DISCUSSION...Deepening updrafts have occasionally been noted in
visible satellite imagery and via KMOB radar over the past hour.
Convective development is trying to occur in the wake of earlier day
shower/cloudiness and within a low-level warm advection regime. Weak
low-level convergence is also noted in surface observations. Surface
heating into the 70s and dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s F are
supporting a narrow corridor of moderate instability across
southwest AL.
Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the area, with any
stronger forcing remaining focused further north toward TN. As a
result, storm development and coverage are uncertain. Given
favorable deep shear across the region and sufficient instability,
if an updraft can become sustained, an organized cell can not be
ruled out. Any stronger convection could produce locally gusty
winds, small hail, or perhaps a brief spin-up. Given uncertainty, a
watch is not currently expected, but trends will be monitored.
..Leitman/Smith.. 11/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32088842 33168811 33308730 33108658 32558608 31998597
31388635 31218696 31208730 31478801 32088842
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
