MD 2198 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024
Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040119Z - 040245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind and hail risk may persist for a
few more hours across portions of northwest Texas. The threat should
remain too localized for a watch.
DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters are
ongoing along a trailing northeast/southwest-oriented low-level
confluence zone in northwest TX this evening. Nearby VWP data
indicates around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented parallel to the
boundary, which combined with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will continue to
support loosely organized clusters for the next few hours. Isolated
instances of severe hail (generally 1-1.75 inches) and locally
severe gusts could accompany the stronger storms, though the risk
appears too marginal/localized for a watch.
..Weinman/Smith.. 11/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32460068 32830070 33200022 33769940 33989879 33969844
33769825 33249825 32249971 32200034 32460068
