MD 2220 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
Areas affected...North Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081918Z - 082115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm organization/intensity will
continue over the next couple of hours. WW may become necessary
later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of
storms along a north-south surface cold front bisecting Texas at
this time, with weaker/elevated convection to the cool side of the
boundary. Over the past hour or so, an increase in storm
organization has occurred over the Big Country/western North Texas,
where a narrow frontal band is now crossing Young and eastern
Stephens/western Palo Pinto counties at this time.
The pre-frontal environment across North Texas is characterized by a
moist boundary layer, but with weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due
to persistent/ongoing precipitation. Despite the marginal
thermodynamic conditions however, flow veering and gradually
increasing with height is contributing to shear profiles favorable
for updrafts to organize -- even in spite of the less favorable
thermodynamics. As such, as storms strengthen gradually this
afternoon, in part due to weak/filtered heating and thus modest
additional destabilization, severe risk -- mainly in the form of
damaging winds and marginal hail, but also possibly including a
tornado or two -- is expected to materialize. Greater tornado
threat would likely require a more cellular pre-frontal warm sector
storm mode, which seems rather unlikely at this time. As such,
tornado threat should be confined to more weak/brief QCLS-type
circulations.
..Goss/Guyer.. 11/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33219833 33609803 33469745 33029685 31849684 31299737
31399793 32649841 33219833
