MD 2256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO FAR WESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Areas affected...portions of central Alabama into far western
Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101554Z - 101730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat should continue to gradually increase
through the morning, into the afternoon hours. A few tornadoes
and/or severe gusts are the main threats. Convective trends are
being monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch. An upgrade to a
Slight Risk is also expected for portions of the region.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually been increasing in
coverage and intensity across central AL within a low-level moisture
axis. Recently, a supercell structure has developed and may have
produced a tornado in western AL. Immediately preceding these storms
is a 30+ kt southwesterly LLJ that is expected to intensify into the
late morning/early afternoon hours. At the same time, surface
heating may boost MLCAPE over 500 J/kg amid upper 60s F surface
dewpoints and modest tropospheric lapse rates. Latest observations
show a diffuse baroclinic zone across central AL into far western
GA. Here, hodographs will be most enlarged amid a potentially
strengthening LLJ and aforementioned adequate buoyancy. Additional
supercell structures are possible this afternoon, with a few
tornadoes and severe gusts the main threats.
Questions remain regarding when an uptick in severe may be realized
(i.e. late morning vs. early afternoon), so it is unclear when a
Tornado Watch may need to be issued. Convective trends will continue
to be monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch at some point today.
Furthermore, given the anticipated uptick in severe, a Slight Risk
will be issued for the upcoming 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 32948400 32578424 32388529 32268635 32348705 32478757
32678789 33218741 33578665 33638560 33458447 33298423
32948400
