MD 2268 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Areas affected...Central/Southern California Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241311Z - 241445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Localized risk for strong to severe gusts and perhaps a
brief waterspout/tornado may increase over the next couple hours.
DISCUSSION...Radar data from KVBX over the last hour or so depicts a
north/south-oriented band of shallow/cellular convection with
transient rotation streaming northward across the Channel Islands
toward Point Conception. Over the next couple hours, a modest
increase in boundary-layer moisture/low-level theta-e toward the
immediate coast and localized terrain effects may support some
increase in updraft intensity. Despite limited buoyancy, strong
deep-layer flow/shear and low-level hodograph curvature (200-300
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KVBX/KVTX VWP) may favor a risk of strong to
locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado with
any sustained surface-based convection that can evolve over the next
couple hours.
..Weinman/Smith.. 12/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOX...
LAT...LON 34351884 34131872 33981882 34011915 34281951 34331997
34392065 34572066 34692051 34711990 34561925 34351884
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
