MD 2272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Areas affected...Northern/Central California Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260011Z - 260215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests a midlevel vort lobe is located about 125mi southwest of EKA, lifting northeast toward the northern CA coast. Radar data supports this with an arcing band of convection, and embedded lightning, extending from the north side of this vort, arcing southeast to about 100mi west of MRY. Strong midlevel jet will translate inland over the next several hours in association with this band of convection. While buoyancy is not particularly strong, SBCAPE is on the order of 200-300 J/kg, and wind profiles favor organized updrafts. Current thinking is gusty winds may accompany this strongly forced band of convection as it surges inland this evening; however, current thinking is a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. ..Darrow/Hart.. 12/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...EKA... LAT...LON 35302183 40082465 40302316 35812044 35302183 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
