MD 2279 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Areas affected...Northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281644Z - 281845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated hail (near 1 inch diameter) and
wind damage will persist through about 19z across northeast Illinois
into northwest Indiana. A watch appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A slightly elevated storm cluster with some supercell
characteristics, and a history of 1 inch hail and some wind damage,
continues to move east-northeastward at 50-55 kt across southern
Livingston and northern Ford Cos. IL. This storm cluster is
tracking near the surface warm front, and appears to be associated
with a subtle/embedded speed max approaching central/northern IL.
Modified short-term forecast soundings suggest the updrafts are
rooted slightly above the surface near the warm front with surface
temperatures in the low 60s, while somewhat larger surface-based
CAPE is confined to areas a bit farther south with temperatures in
the mid 60s. Long hodographs/strong vertical shear will continue to
support organized/supercell structures before the storms outpace the
somewhat greater buoyancy in IL, but the overall hail/wind threat
should be limited by rather poor low-midlevel lapse rates. As such,
a watch remains unlikely in the short term.
..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...
LAT...LON 40928665 40768790 40788812 41018835 41188827 41478784
41598736 41758682 41688642 41228631 40928665
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
