MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX…SOUTHERN AR…NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Areas affected…Northeast TX…Southern AR…Northern LA
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 150753Z – 151000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated hail and strong gusts possible overnight.
DISCUSSION…A strong storm with some supercell characteristics has
recently developed in Union County, AR, along the eastern fringe of
extensive elevated convection ongoing near the ArkLaTex and
ArkLaMiss regions. While this particular cell will soon be undercut
by southward-sagging outflow, an additional strong storm or two
could evolve from near the LA/AR border to northeast TX, within a
low-level warm advection regime. For storms that can become rooted
near the surface, MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and effective shear
of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization, with a threat for
isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. The KSHV VWP depicts rather
strong low-level shear/SRH, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
with any cell that can become surface-based. However, in general,
the longevity of any organized storms is expected to be relatively
limited, and any severe threat likely to be remain mostly isolated
overnight.
..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAN…LZK…SHV…
LAT…LON 32929492 33279395 33519312 33519243 33439175 33319144
32959132 32529142 32359180 32279260 32219341 32239388
32339506 32929492
