SPC MD 254

SPC MD 254


Mesoscale Discussion 0254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Areas affected…Parts of northern MS/AL

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 150836Z – 151030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Some threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief
tornado may persist through the early morning.

DISCUSSION…A loosely organized QLCS is ongoing early this morning
from eastern/middle TN toward the ArkLaTex region. In general, the
QLCS is oriented southwest-to-northeast, roughly parallel to the
deep-layer shear vectors, with a tendency for outflow to undercut
the strongest convection. However, a portion of the QLCS across
northern MS has taken on a more north-south orientation, with some
increase in storm organization noted, including some low-level
rotation where this line segment is intersecting the more east-west
oriented outflow.

If this line segment can maintain its current orientation and
organization as it moves eastward, then some threat for locally
damaging gusts will spread eastward into northeast MS and northern
AL. A brief line-embedded tornado also cannot be ruled out where
this line segment intersects the outflow. Given the relatively
narrow corridor of somewhat more favorable severe threat and
potential for outflow to keep sagging southward, the need for watch
issuance is uncertain at this time.

..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 33908927 34198894 34398873 34588867 34638777 34688718
34678680 34508658 34138658 33958670 33838718 33778798
33768863 33918938 33908927

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