SPC MD 257

SPC MD 257


Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Areas affected…central Texas/Edwards Plateau vicinity

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52…

Valid 151409Z – 151615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52

SUMMARY…A risk for large hail will continue into early afternoon
across central Texas and the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Additional
storm development is expected by midday.

DISCUSSION…A couple of supercells over southeastern portions of
the San Angelo forecast area have likely produced large hail this
morning, with MRMS MESH signatures as high as 1.75 inches. This
activity is likely elevated, spreading north of a southward sagging
cold front across the region. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates noted
in 12z RAOBS, combined with MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and strong
vertical shear will support a continued hail risk as these cells
track east/northeast. Some gradual weakening is expected with any
cells that develop further northeast into the deeper cool air across
Fort Worth forecast area.

Additional storms are expected to develop with south and east extent
across WW 52 by midday. Heating has already allowed temperatures to
warm into the low/mid 70s ahead of the sagging cold front. Surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will aid in strong
destabilization by early afternoon. Very large hail (2-3 inches in
diameter) will be possible, along with isolated strong gusts and
perhaps a tornado. With a 17z watch expiration time, it is possible
a small local extension in space/time may be needed. Additional
watch issuance is also possible later this afternoon toward the I-35
corridor across eastern portions of WFO Austin/San Antonio into
parts of WFO Houston. This area will be addressed in a separate MCD.

..Leitman/Goss.. 03/15/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 29570143 30130151 31719977 31799962 31929887 31809841
31149803 30659799 29919859 28939960 28500054 29100098

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