MD 0317 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024
Areas affected…portions of northern Missouri into central Illinois
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 312226Z – 010030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Severe hail will accompany ongoing elevated supercell in
west-central IL, moving into central IL, in the near term.
Convective initiation is more uncertain farther south along the warm
front in northern MO given weak forcing. Buoyancy and shear does
favor severe storm development should convective initiation occur.
Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION…An elevated supercell in west-central IL, with a
history of marginally severe hail, persists within strong zonal
mid-level flow to the north of a warm front. Strong 850-700 mb WAA
continues to advect adequate moisture ahead of the supercell in
central IL, boosting MUCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range (per 21Z
mesoanalysis). Meanwhile the stronger southwesterly WAA beneath 60+
kt westerly 500 mb flow is contributing to modestly curved but
elongated hodographs. As such, severe hail development may persist
with this supercell for a couple more hours.
Meanwhile, surface-based convective initiation from agitated CU
farther south along the warm front, draped from roughly Linn County
MO to Jasper County IL, remains uncertain in the absence of strong
forcing. Surface heating has boosted MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg
range amid stronger deep-layer shear (i.e. elongated and curved
hodographs supporting 60+ kts of effective bulk shear). As such, any
storms that can initiate and become sustained may produce severe
hail/wind. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
possibility of convective initiation over the next few hours.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/31/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…ILX…LSX…DVN…EAX…
LAT…LON 39919320 40399240 40689096 40678934 40358816 39788775
39208768 38848780 38788853 39149028 39539183 39669268
39919320
