MD 0371 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024
Areas affected…Portions of central North Carolina
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 031847Z – 032045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible.
Large hail probability is low, but a supercell could produce
marginally severe hail.
DISCUSSION…Two clusters of storms have develop over the last hour,
one just northwest of Raleigh and near Fayetteville. The
northernmost cluster is in a better thermodynamic and kinematic
environment and has shown a tendency contain supercellular
structures. The KRAX VAD shows very strong deep-layer shear and some
low-level hodograph curvature (though less than areas to the north
and east). The strongest storms will be capable of damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado. The large hail threat should be
mitigated by generally poor mid-level lapse rates, but a
supercellular storm mode could lead to at least marginally severe
hail despite those environmental limitations.
As the strongest storms are anticipated to move into WW87 relatively
soon, no new watch is expected. Should these storm intensify more
than currently forecast, a local extension of WW87 would be the most
likely course of action.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MHX…RAH…ILM…
LAT…LON 35897834 35797806 35477784 35047820 34637899 34687942
34807962 35077977 35337983 36017915 35977866 35897834
