MD 0457 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF IA INTO NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Areas affected…portions of IA into northern MO
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 161350Z – 161445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms ongoing across far eastern Kansas into
northwest Missouri will likely continue to shift northeast through
the morning. Severe potential may increase gradually through the
morning downstream across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Area
being monitored for watch issuance.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms tracking northeast across eastern
KS/northwest MO ahead of a surface cold front are expected to
continue through the morning. The downstream airmass remains at
least weakly capped given cloud cover and limited heating. Ongoing
activity is likely sub-severe at this point, though may produce
gusty winds 40-50 mph given recent obs of 41 kt at STJ and 39 kt at
EVU. With time and additional destabilization, convection may
intensify and become severe, though the northern extent of
convection will also be outpacing higher-quality moisture/warmer
temperatures as storms lift northeast into IA (surface dewpoints in
the 50s F). Additional convection is expected to develop with
southward extent into northern MO. This area is currently
experiencing somewhat better heating through broken cloudiness. This
may allow for greater destabilization given better boundary-layer
moisture.
The overall expectation is that a line of storms will develop north
to south across IA into northern MO through the morning. This
activity will have potential to produce severe gusts and a couple of
tornadoes. Additional severe potential may develop later this
afternoon in the wake of this initial morning activity if airmass
recovery can occur. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour
or so.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LSX…DVN…SGF…DMX…EAX…OAX…TOP…
LAT…LON 39509570 41579564 42179444 42249224 41719159 40309139
39009163 38689181 38489220 38319326 38539450 39019524
39379568 39509570
