MD 0460 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 116…117… FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA…NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Areas affected…northern Missouri into central/eastern
Iowa…northwest Illinois and extreme southwest Wisconsin
Concerning…Tornado Watch 116…117…
Valid 161856Z – 162000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 116, 117 continues.
SUMMARY…All severe hazards remain possible across parts of
northern Missouri, central/eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and
extreme southwest Wisconsin the next several hours.
DISCUSSION…A couple of bands of severe thunderstorms will continue
to generally shift east/northeast the next few hours over the MCD
area. The leading band of convection will continue to exhibit a mix
of storm modes (cells and cluster/line segments) as weak inhibition
remains downstream. Nevertheless, low 60s F dewpoints and favorable
low-level shear will support rotating storms and a couple of
tornadoes remain possible.
Behind the leading band of convection, across north-central MO, low
to mid 60s F dewpoints are still in place amid an uncapped
environment. As large scale ascent continues to overspread the area,
and on the edges of the midlevel dryslot, these storms may
experience some intensification in the next couple of hours.
However, contamination of the airmass by the leading band of storms
may also be a limiting factor, and there is quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding the evolution of the second band of storms.
Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates and instability across the area
remain somewhat modest, which is likely resulting in some stunting
of updrafts intensity despite strong vertical shear profiles.
Overall, all severe hazards remain possible, though uncertainty
remains higher than usual.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILX…LSX…DVN…ARX…DMX…EAX…
LAT…LON 42979180 41918967 40058975 39059053 38939167 38719332
38769421 40009395 41799337 42759332 43019265 42979180
