MD 0467 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119… FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Areas affected…Parts of northeast and east central Missouri
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119…
Valid 162323Z – 170130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119
continues.
SUMMARY…The risk for widely scattered additional strong to severe
thunderstorm development near/east of Columbia and Jefferson City
into areas northwest of St. Louis may still not be negligible.
However, it appears to be lowering and likely to diminish further
with the loss of daytime heating. If current trends continue, the
watch may be cancelled within the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION…In the wake of an initial band of weakening convection
which has spread east of the Mississippi River, a moistening
low-level environment has contributed to a corridor of increasing
potential instability across much of northeastern into east central
and south central Missouri. This is ahead of a remnant dryline
advancing across/east of the Kirksville, Columbia and Springfield
vicinities.
Renewed discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing as far south as
areas to the southeast of Kirksville, with additional deepening
convection noted near/west of Columbia and Jefferson City. Some
convection allowing guidance, including the High Resolution Rapid
Refresh suggest further intensification of the southern convective
development might still be possible, before spreading near/to the
northwest of the Greater St. Louis area through 00-02Z. Based on
the Rapid Refresh forecast track of a weakening 500 mb jet core, and
associated mid-level subsidence/warming, this would seem be the
southern/southeastern limit for stronger convective development.
However, based on latest water vapor imagery, the potential for new
storms south of the Hannibal/Quincy area is becoming low.
..Kerr.. 04/16/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILX…LSX…
LAT…LON 39749206 40139168 40019060 39389045 38759092 38429160
38519240 39079239 39749206
