MD 0522 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE 135… FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected…North-Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible 135…
Valid 260743Z – 260945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Severe threat may continue downstream of WW135. A new
watch may be needed soon.
DISCUSSION…A broken line of convection continues to move across
north-central Texas along and south of the Red River. This line has
produced a few severe hail and wind reports but has only maintained
modest intensity over the last couple of hours. The environment
ahead of this line would support continued risk for severe wind and
hail, given MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, deep layer shear around 40-50
kts, and increasingly favorable moisture amid a largely uncapped
profile. While the line is expected to continue eastward through the
morning, some uncertainty lies in the ability for convection to
become more well organized, and thus the coverage of any potential
severe potential. Given the favorable airmass and shear profiles, a
downstream watch is being considered.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 04/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…OUN…
LAT…LON 35269823 35309736 35239717 34799702 34379694 33649686
33489701 33449731 33429799 33449888 33499939 33759971
34179996 34599983 34659973 35009913 35269823
