MD 0527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected…parts of east-central Oklahoma into far northern
Texas and western Arkansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 261753Z – 262000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…At least isolated severe storms capable of tornadoes and
very large hail may develop this afternoon over parts of eastern
Oklahoma southward into the Red River Valley and toward far western
Arkansas.
DISCUSSION…Surface analysis and visible satellite clearly show the
dryline progressing across central OK and into western North Texas,
with gradually increasing CU fields to the east. Cool outflow
remains over much of northeast OK into northwest AR, but dewpoints
continue to rise just south and west of the existing outflow
boundary.
The 18Z OUN sounding shows an uncapped air mass and strong
instability just ahead of the dryline. Even greater surface theta-e
values exist south and east of the area, contributing to over 3000
MUCAPE. Shear is also strong across the area, with around 60 kt
effective deep layer shear, and 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 for
most of the region.
As heating continues ahead of the dryline, and clouds erode, a
narrow zone of supercell potential will develop and at least
isolated cells are expected later this afternoon.
The environment will favor tornadic supercells, with potential for
strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. The aggregated threat
area may be relatively small in time and space, however, any
supercells that endure may produce significant severe weather.
..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LZK…SHV…TSA…ICT…FWD…OUN…
LAT…LON 35209394 34799383 34269480 33879590 33419723 33369764
33659761 34869718 35479698 36269679 36939663 37089663
37249636 37129582 36919547 36449532 35879514 35539488
35369464 35209394
