MD 0528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected…portions of northern and central Iowa
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 261804Z – 261930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Elevated convection north of the advancing warm front may
pose a risk for isolated hail through the early afternoon.
DISCUSSION…As of 1800 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
developing thunderstorms north of a warm front across pats of
northern and central IA. Strong low-level warm advection is
occurring ahead of the front as an upper trough begins to lift
northeastward out of the central Plains. As broad scale ascent and
warm advection continue, elevated buoyancy will likely support
scattered thunderstorms. Steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and
around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support occasional strong elevated
updrafts. Wind profiles are expected to continue to strengthen
during the day supporting a mixed supercell/cluster mode. Large hail
will be possible with the more robust cores above the cooler surface
temperatures. A greater severe risk may develop later this afternoon
as the surface layer gradually destabilizes. Given the elevated
nature of the convection limiting coverage of stronger storms a WW
is unlikely.
..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DMX…FSD…OAX…
LAT…LON 41649426 41919535 42169565 42479576 42839600 43219611
43399605 43479553 43459452 43279410 43059383 42749365
42449351 42099338 41739342 41499354 41429386 41649426
