MD 0531 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected…portions of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 261946Z – 262145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Rapid air mass recovery is underway east of the dryline in
the wake of the early day MCS. Hi-res guidance and observational
tends suggest isolated storm development is possible, but uncertain,
over the next few hours. Supercells with a risk for all hazards will
be possible and a Tornado Watch is being considered.
DISCUSSION…As of 1940 UTC, visible imagery showed renewed attempts
at deepening cumulus towers along the dryline across northern and
central KS. Large-scale ascent has been steadily increasing this
afternoon as a mid-level jet begins to impinge on the recovering
warm sector over eastern KS and far western MO. Rapid air mass
modification is ongoing as mid-level dry air associated with the jet
streak has eroded lingering convective cloud debris. Dewpoints have
increased into the low to middle 60s F in eastern KS over the last
couple of hours as vertical mixing has deepened. Still, moderate
inhibition remains in place as observed from ACARS soundings at MCI
and the TOP RAOB. Continued heating, and the arrival of broad ascent
will allow for additional destabilization with MLCAPE of 2000-2500
J/kg likely by late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will
likely support strong and deep updrafts if convection is able to
develop. Strong veering wind profiles would also favor a
predominately supercell storm mode, with a risk for all hazards.
The primary uncertainty is the potential for limited coverage of
storms amid the ongoing air mass recovery. Recent hi-res guidance
continues to indicate a few storms will likely evolve along the
dryline this afternoon and track northeastward into northeastern KS
and western MO. However, exactly how many storms develop, and how
far east they will pose a threat remains unclear given the remaining
inhibition. Still, very strong low-level shear observed from area
VADs and large buoyancy may support a significant severe threat
(including a strong tornado) with any supercells able to become
established. While timing remains very uncertain, convective trends
are being monitored for a potential Tornado Watch this afternoon.
..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SGF…EAX…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 39849484 39209455 37689460 37709670 39519655 39599642
39849484
