MD 0540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Areas affected…Central to northeast KS
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 271633Z – 271830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…Severe storms are expected to develop during the early to
mid-afternoon along the surface front across central to northeast
Kansas. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will all be
possible.
DISCUSSION…16Z surface analysis placed a quasi-stationary front
across central to northeast KS. A swelling CU field with embedded
small CBs have initiated along the portion of the front just north
of SLN to MHK. With minimal warm-sector MLCIN amid 65-66 F surface
dew points, convective development will increase into early
afternoon. Primary uncertainty is the degree of sustained convective
coverage. With the deep-layer shear vector oriented roughly parallel
to the front, a cluster-type mode may eventually dominate. But given
that large-scale ascent is relatively weak through the afternoon,
it’s plausible that a more discrete supercell mode could be
maintained for several hours. With 40-45 kt south-southwesterly
low-level flow per the ICT VWP data, all severe hazards will be
possible, including the potential for a strong tornado or two later
this afternoon.
..Grams.. 04/27/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…EAX…OAX…TOP…ICT…DDC…
LAT…LON 39309733 39919582 40109521 39769481 39069508 38379640
38009822 38219871 38599887 39309733
