MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OZARKS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Areas affected…Ozarks region
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 290447Z – 290645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…there is a low risk of a brief tornado, and/or gusty
winds, with convection early this morning.
DISCUSSION…Weak mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting northeast
across MO late this evening. This feature appears largely
responsible for MCS that is propagating across central MO.
Southwestern flank of this complex trails across the MO Ozarks into
northwest AR. Isolated supercells are embedded along this flanking
convection where weak buoyancy has yet to be overturned. Forecast
soundings for this region suggest parcels may be slightly elevated,
but strongly sheared. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, at
this time it appears the weak instability will limit the severe
potential as the MCS propagates downstream.
..Darrow/Smith.. 04/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PAH…LSX…LZK…SGF…
LAT…LON 37249226 37569104 36849062 36329197 36479284 37249226
