MD 0647 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024
Areas affected…northwest/north-central KS and south-central NE
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 061557Z – 061800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…An arc of severe thunderstorms should develop by early
afternoon along the composite cold front/dryline. Tornadoes, large
hail, and severe wind gusts are expected with a midday tornado watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION…15Z surface analysis placed the composite cold
front/dryline across southwest NE into far western KS. A lobe of
large-scale ascent indicated by a patch of upper-level cirrus along
the KS/CO border will rapidly spread northeast and likely aid in
convective development along the KS/NE border area during the next
few hours. A plume of at least moderate buoyancy is already present,
with earlier MLCIN noted in 12Z LBF/DDC soundings waning.
Enlarged/elongated hodographs will favor supercell structures,
especially with southern extent where a couple strong tornadoes will
be possible. Linear frontal forcing and potential for pinching of
the northeast portion of the surface-based buoyancy plume should
yield greater potential for upscale growth earlier with northern
extent. A mix of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts is
expected.
..Grams/Smith.. 05/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TOP…ICT…GID…LBF…DDC…GLD…
LAT…LON 39220046 40650055 41430064 41860013 41919910 41219818
40069774 39069768 38519826 38269914 38170010 38680039
39220046
