SPC MD 761

SPC MD 761


Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected…Southern Mississippi…Southern Alabama…Western
Florida Panhandle

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely

Valid 130939Z – 131045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…A wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be
possible for several more hours, as a line segment moves
east-southeastward from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance will
likely be needed.

DISCUSSION…The latest hi-resolution radar from Jackson, MS shows
an organized line segment moving east-southwestward across southern
Mississippi. This line is being supported by a shortwave trough,
evident on water vapor imagery, and is located along a gradient of
instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range.
Along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor, regional
WSR-88D VWPs and RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 60
to 75 knot range. This should continue to be favorable for storm
organization for several more hours. Wind damage will be possible
along the leading edge of the line. In addition, the WSR-88 VWP at
Fort Rucker, AL has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2
suggesting an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. The
severe threat may increase along the leading edge of the line, if it
can become more surface-based.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/13/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 32218844 32208921 31878958 31538980 31198975 31018952
30238754 29968668 30128597 30528570 30968558 31488614
31898725 32188824 32218844

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