MD 0765 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234… FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected…Portions of far southern AL into the FL Panhandle
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234…
Valid 131528Z – 131630Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234
continues.
SUMMARY…A threat for mainly severe/damaging winds should persist
beyond the scheduled 16Z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
234. A new watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION…A small bowing cluster with a history of producing
severe winds up to 54 kt is ongoing across parts of far
southern/coastal AL into the western FL Panhandle. Latest surface
observations show boundary extends eastward from this cluster very
near/along the FL Panhandle Coast. A moist low-level airmass is
present along/south of this boundary, with surface dewpoints
generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Even modest/filtered heating
of his moist airmass will support at least weak boundary-layer
destabilization, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg per recent
mesoanalysis estimates. VWPs from KEVX/KTLH show a
veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper
levels. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will support continued
organization of the ongoing cluster in the short term, with
severe/damaging winds remaining the primary threat as convection
spreads eastward across much of the FL Panhandle through this
afternoon. But, some concern also exists regarding embedded/QLCS
tornado potential, as 0-1 km shear is sufficient for low-level
updraft rotation. With WW 234 scheduled to expire at 16Z, and the
threat likely to continue this afternoon, a new watch is likely.
..Gleason.. 05/13/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TAE…MOB…
LAT…LON 30508777 31148704 30688486 30358346 29958314 29418329
29558509 30038631 29988761 30508777
