MD 0794 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE…TEXAS PANHANDLE…AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Areas affected…Oklahoma Panhandle…Texas Panhandle…and far
eastern New Mexico
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 152001Z – 152130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Watch possible this afternoon as potential for damaging
winds and large hail increases.
DISCUSSION…Visible satellite shows areas of cu developing across
portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. Trends in CAM guidance and morning/afternoon WoFS runs
show medium confidence in storm initiation across the Texas
Panhandle by 20-21z. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with
steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km. Surface objective
analysis shows MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg from the Texas Panhandle
into western Oklahoma with mid-level capping remaining, though
surface temperatures in the mid 80s should remove the cap per the
19z AMA sounding. High-based convection will initially pose a risk
of severe winds, given deeply mixed profiles and large dew point
depressions. A watch may be needed prior to 21z.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/15/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OUN…DDC…LUB…AMA…MAF…PUB…ABQ…
LAT…LON 34960335 35760348 36430323 36900277 37050161 37140048
36980008 35990000 33509992 33210037 32870142 32850193
32870249 33320289 34960335
