MD 0799 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Areas affected…Parts of the TX South Plains into western north TX
and southwest OK
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 160846Z – 161015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…The threat for isolated hail and localized strong/damaging
gusts may persist through the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION…A small thunderstorm cluster, which has produced a few
severe gusts within the West Texas Mesonet, is moving east of
Lubbock early this morning. This cluster continues to show some
organization, with notable pressure rises in its wake, and isolated
severe gusts will remain possible as it continues to move eastward
within a modestly favorable environment.
Other strong cells have developed in a band extending east from the
cluster, with golfball-size hail recently reported in Wilbarger
County. While this convection is elevated atop a relatively
cool/stable near-surface layer, MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and
sufficient effective shear could support maintenance or some
intensification of these ongoing storms in the hours prior to
sunrise. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support an
isolated hail threat, while rather dry subcloud layers could support
a continued threat for localized strong to severe gusts.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/16/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OUN…SJT…LUB…
LAT…LON 33990078 34070065 34100008 34269968 34539899 34699831
33899802 33599862 33439912 33300010 33250092 33390118
33990078
