MD 0852 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Areas affected…South Florida
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 201904Z – 202100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible
with isolated strong/severe storms this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Cumulus have become more vertically developed along a
remnant surface boundary north of Lake Okeechobee. Other cumulus
agitation is occurring in south-central Florida where outflow from
convection in the Florida Keys/Straits has enhanced convergence.
Storm initiation is most likely along the sea/lake breeze boundaries
as well as the northward moving outflow and seems possible within
the next 1-2 hours. Storm coverage should remain isolated given weak
forcing aloft. Storm intensity should also be muted compared to
yesterday given warmer mid-level temperatures (around -8 C per 12Z
observed MFL sounding). Isolated marginally severe hail and damaging
winds are the primary hazards with the strongest storms this
afternoon.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/20/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…
LAT…LON 27057975 26407974 25567991 25638030 25768077 26028108
26398132 27138122 27348114 27488113 27728103 27728075
27598036 27568008 27257979 27057975
