MD 0914 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024
Areas affected…Western Nebraska into central South Dakota
Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 231953Z – 232200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon for
parts of western Nebraska into central South Dakota. Very-large hail
will be possible with initial supercells before a transition to a
more linear mode. Severe wind gusts will then become the dominant
threat.
DISCUSSION…Cumulus continue to increase along a surface
trough/cold front in western Nebraska and south-central South
Dakota. With the approach of the shortwave trough now in
western/central Wyoming, these trends should continue. Moisture
continues to increase ahead of the boundary, particularly into
western Nebraska, where a corridor of upper 50s F dewpoints are
noted farther southeast in surface observations. Objective
mesoanalysis shows decreasing MLCIN. Initiation of storms seems
probable in the next 1-3 hours. Storms will initially be supercells
capable of very large hail. Upscale growth may occur relatively
quickly given the linear forcing and larger T/Td spreads at the
surface. Severe wind gusts will become increasing likely as this
transition occurs.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FSD…ABR…LBF…UNR…
LAT…LON 40680140 40710163 41450239 41870234 43410129 44180067
44759946 44459861 43219907 41060102 40680140
