MD 0939 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected…Northern Illinois into southeast Wisconsin
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 242146Z – 242345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered thunderstorms will continue to spread northeast
into northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin through the evening
hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but the overall
threat should remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION…Several thunderstorm clusters continue to move
northeast from northwest IL/eastern IA towards northern IL/southern
WI. GOES IR imagery has shown steadily cooling cloud top
temperatures with this activity, suggesting some degree of
intensification; however, MRMS vertically integrated ice (and other
radar-based measures of convective intensity) show that most of the
stronger updrafts/convective cores have been relatively short-lived.
Some degree of air mass recovery has taken place across northern
IL/southern WI with temperatures rebounding into the 70s, but cloud
debris has limited overall destabilization, and RAP forecast
soundings hint that low-level lapse rates are fairly marginal with
some degree of lingering MLCIN. East/southeasterly low-level winds
under 40 knot mid-level flow should continue to support transient
storm organization with the deeper/stronger cells, but the marginal
thermodynamic environment should modulate the overall severe threat.
Sporadic damaging winds/hail, and perhaps a brief tornado, appear
possible given the kinematic environment, but should be sufficiently
isolated to preclude watch issuance.
..Moore/Thompson.. 05/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…ILX…MKX…DVN…
LAT…LON 40718878 41218955 41789006 42259016 42948995 43328953
43568904 43578871 43318774 42808759 42178749 41898732
41628731 41218744 40898773 40698811 40668840 40718878
