SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally damaging winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening across portions of South Texas. ...South Texas... Pronounced amplification and reinforcement of the longwave trough east of the Rockies will occur today via a southeastward-diving shortwave trough/jet streak over the southern High Plains and South Texas. This will steadily drive a cold front southeastward across Texas and toward the western Gulf by tonight, with low-level moistening occurring ahead of it. The extent/degree of moistening inland is a bit uncertain, but scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase by late afternoon across the coastal plain near the front. These storms will be semi-low topped, with sufficient moisture/buoyancy for supercells in the presence of elongated hodographs with 45+ kt effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. The primary severe threat, including large hail and locally damaging winds, will be along the immediate coast, and into the open waters of the western Gulf tonight. A further increase in expected storm coverage for inland areas could warrant a hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/01/2025
