SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL/SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening across portions of south Texas. ...South Texas... Recent visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and the VWPs from CRP/BRO indicate low-level moisture continues to stream northward across parts of the middle TX Coast and deep south TX ahead of a surface cold front. Within broader large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the central/eastern CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains late this morning will dig quickly southeastward across TX by this evening. Ascent preceding this shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered convective development by 22-00Z across portions of coastal TX and perhaps farther inland near the southeastward-moving cold front. Even though the low-level moisture return is not expected to be overly deep/rich, the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates amid strong diurnal heating will likely support the development of at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Modest east-southeasterly low-level winds will veer to west-northwesterly and strengthen through mid/upper levels, fostering strong (40-50+ kt) deep-layer shear. Resultant elongated/nearly straight hodographs aloft will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for multiple supercells capable of producing mainly large hail. There is still some uncertainty with how many robust thunderstorms can develop over land, and how quickly they strengthen before moving offshore into the western Gulf. Still, a more favorable corridor for large hail should exist late this afternoon and evening from the vicinity of Corpus Christi northward towards/near Victoria, where a Slight Risk has been added with this update. ..Gleason/Elliott.. 11/01/2025
